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India to drive oil demand growth toward 2030.
The recent IEA oil demand outlook expects India, the third-largest oil importer, to lead oil demand growth towards 2030. Indian oil demand is projected to increase 1.2mb/d by 20230, over 35% of the total projected 3.2mb/d demand growth. As a leading oil importer India’s demand growth will also drive demand for tankers and product tankers.
“IEA sees India leading oil demand growth forecasting increased oil demand of 1.2mb/d by 2030 mostly by imports”.
Suezmax rates held steady last week, stronger VLCC market had a stabilizing effect, with rates remaining steady overall. Suezmax rates appear to be finding a bottom after the Red Sea conflict surge, at a significantly higher level than pre-conflict. Rates could move higher next week.
Aframax markets eased slightly last week.
VLCC rates strengthened this week, driven by stronger activity levels, supported by the New Year celebrations in the East. Activity levels were also elevated in the West. There could be a risk activity levels retreat following the end of the New Year celebrations, however, tonnage lists currently remain tight.
Aframax ECO, 12 months TC
Aframax, Average spot
Suezmax ECO, 12 months TC
Suezmax, Average spot
Source: Clarksons Research
Capesize rates surge again reaching a seasonal high.
Capesize rates rose significantly last week on strong enquiry in both basins. Rates eased somewhat towards the end of the week ahead of New Year celebrations in the East, but overall average fleet-weighted Capesize earnings are now their strongest for February in over a decade. Brazilian iron ore exports have been a key driver for the recent move, while Brazilian grain exports also hit a record in January.
“Strong demand levels have driven historically high rates for the winter season”.
Panamax markets also saw strong activity levels, with rates moving higher week-on-week, this was particularly true in the Atlantic, where tonnage lists also tightened. While in the East demand was sufficient to support rates against some drop in activity at the end of the week relating to the holiday period.
Handy rates eased a little as Transatlantic demand was weak while owners sought to find cover before the New Year holidays.
Capesize, 12 months TC
Kamsarmax, 12 months TC
Source: Clarksons Research
PCTC earnings show strong cash generation and strong balance sheets.
The car carrier earnings season commenced last week with Hoegh Autoliners reporting their Q4 2023 results. The company announced a dividend of around NOK 20 per share for Q4, with a quarterly dividend yield of around 19% at the time of the report – the share ended the week up almost 20%.
“Strong appetite for long-term contracts at strong rates for PCTCs”.
Hoegh Autoliners showed that time charter rates reached new highs as the Red Sea conflict forced vessels to avoid the Suez Canal locking up supply. The Suez Canal conflict continues to deepen the supply shortage in the industry and supports the ongoing very high-rate environment.
On the demand side, Hoegh Autoliners expects continued demand growth from vehicle export growth from China at around 4% per year towards 2026, also highlighting that 70% of the oncoming vessel supply in 2024 will be delivered in H2. Gram Car Carriers also updated their supply and demand outlook projecting a market undersupply until 2026.
5000 CEU – 12 months TC
6500 CEU – 12 months TC
Source: Clarksons Research
| Type | Tons | + /- | ||
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| VLCC | ||||
| Suemax | ||||
| Aframax | ||||
| MR |
| Type | Resale | 5y | 10y | |
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| Suemax | ||||
| Aframax | ||||
| MR |
| Type | Tons | + /- | ||
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| Capesize | ||||
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| Supramax | ||||
| Handysize |
| Type | Resale | 5y | 10y | |
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| Capesize | ||||
| Panamax | ||||
| Supramax | ||||
| Handysize |
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