MARKET NEWS

EMF Weekly 23

7 days ago

TankerS

Tanker rates remain strong amid high vessel utilisation.

The crude tanker market is grappling with an ageing fleet, according to Andrea Olivi, the head of wet freight at Trafigura, a leading commodities trading house. Olivi said that the ageing fleet needs to be replaced; however, shipyards are still occupied with other orders, making it difficult to address the issue. The strong demand for tankers and constrained vessel supply continues to support historically strong rates in the tanker market across all vessel segments.

“Tanker market is grappling with an ageing fleet – Andrea Olivi, Trafigura.”

The demand for tankers remains robust as crude supply has grown in 2024, particularly from the Americas (US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada), which also adds ton-miles given the greater distances. OPEC+ will also be increasing supply to the market in the back end of 2024 at a monthly rate of 180,000 bpd from October to December 2024 and then by around 210,000 bpd monthly from January 2025 to September 2025. The unravelling of OPEC+ supply cuts will be a steady boost to the tanker market. The OPEC+ driven tanker demand growth combines with the opening of the Tans Mountain Extension (TMX) pipeline in Canada in May 2024, which is expected to add demand for around 30-35 aframax tankers.

$ 0 /day

Aframax ECO, 12 months TC

$ 0 /day

Aframax, Average spot

$ 0 /day

Suezmax ECO, 12 months TC

$ 0 /day

Suezmax, Average spot

Source: Clarksons Research

Dry Bulk

Bulk markets rise again led by capesize and panamax segments.

Capesize rates rose around 10% week-on-week, according to Clarksons Research, as strong cargo volumes, particularly from Australia, pushed markets higher. Cargo volumes were also strong in the North Atlantic, helping to support rates despite a growing tonnage list.

“Capesize rates are comfortably above their YTD 2024 average supported by strong cargo volumes.”

Panamax rates generally firmed, too, supported in large part by strong grain and coal cargoes in the Atlantic and strong activity levels in the Pacific at the start of the week. Handy markets were more mixed as strong grain shipments saw rates rise in the Atlantic, while an influx of vessels in the Pacific led rate lower.

$ 0 /day

Capesize, 12 months TC

$ 0 /day

Kamsarmax, 12 months TC

Source: Clarksons Research

car carrier

Capacity still a limiting factor – Anders Enger, Hoegh Autoliners CEO.

CEO of Hoegh Autoliners, Anders Enger, says capacity is still a “limiting factor.” The PCTC market, which has been undersupplied since Covid-19, continues to face vessel supply challenges, underpinning the exceptionally high rates in recent years. The Hoegh Autoliners CEO says the company still faces greater demand than they have available capacity, and as a result, the company must prioritize serving its long-term strategic customers. The statement suggests plentiful pent-up demand and the need for a significantly greater fleet for the market to balance. It appears that this point is still a long way off based on Anders Enger’s comments.

$ 0 /day

5000 CEU – 12 months TC

$ 0 /day

6500 CEU – 12 months  TC

Source: Clarksons Research

Tankers

Indicative TC (1 year)
Type Tons + /-
VLCC
Suemax
Aframax
MR
Indicative Values
Type Resale 5y 10y
VLCC
Suemax
Aframax
MR

Dry Bulk

Indicative TC (1 year)
Type Tons + /-
Capesize
Panamax
Supramax
Handysize
Indicative Values
Type Resale 5y 10y
Capesize
Panamax
Supramax
Handysize

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