MARKET NEWS
EMF Weekly 16
1 day ago
TankerS
Tanker fundamentals looking healthy – Gibsons.
Following weeks of very high tensions in the Middle East, with Israel and Iran both launching respective attacks last week, tensions seem to ease again late last week. Easing tensions are positive for tankers given Iran’s threats to disrupt transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which Bloomberg report handles almost 30% of the world’s oil trade, with tankers hauling 15.5 million barrels per day of crude and condensate from Suadi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran through the Strait of Hormuz in Q1 2024. De-escalating tensions therefore allow this volume to continue flowing, supporting tanker demand.
“Israel-Iran tensions seemed to have eased last week, reducing Strait of Hormuz disruption risk”.
Beyond geopolitics, tanker fundamentals remain strong, according to ship broker Gibsons. They cite continued supply growth, led by the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. Demand is also rising driven by non-OECD nations including India and China, while changing refinery composition (refinery capacity closure in Europe and opening in Asia) is expected to increase ton miles.
Aframax ECO, 12 months TC
Aframax, Average spot
Suezmax ECO, 12 months TC
Suezmax, Average spot
Source: Clarksons Research
Dry Bulk
Bulk markets gain, led by capesize rates.
Capesize markets started the week slow, however, rising demand throughout the week, particularly from the South Atlantic, saw capesize rates rise week-on-week. Capesize was the best performing vessel segment, but with the bulk market generally gaining across the board.
“All bulk vessel segments gain as solid activity levels lead rates higher”.
Panamax rates also climbed last week, driven primarily by strength in the North Atlantic. Activity levels were slightly weaker in the East, however, overall the market climbed. Handy rates also enjoyed gains last week, supported by demand for coal in the West and in the East.
Capesize, 12 months TC
Kamsarmax, 12 months TC
Source: Clarksons Research
car carrier
Investment bank upgrade PCTC owner’s price targets ahead of earnings.
PCTC markets gear up for corporate earnings, as Norwegian listed Hoegh Autoliners and Gram Car Carriers will be reporting their Q1 2024 earnings, and respective management teams will share their insights on current market conditions and the future market outlook. Investment Bank ABG Sundal Collier upgraded its price targets for Hoegh Autoliners, Gram Car Carriers, and Wallenius Wilhelmsen last week, reiterating their buy ratings for all three names.
Focusing on the PCTC market directly news broke last week that the US Port of Brunswick, Georgia set a record for Ro/Ro (roll on, roll off) cargo last month, evidence that the bridge collapse at the Port of Baltimore is diverting cargo to other US ports. The earnings will show the market what effect the greater car miles are having on the industry.
5000 CEU – 12 months TC
6500 CEU – 12 months TC
Source: Clarksons Research
Tankers
Indicative TC (1 year)
| Type | Tons | + /- | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC | ||||
| Suemax | ||||
| Aframax | ||||
| MR |
Indicative Values
| Type | Resale | 5y | 10y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC | ||||
| Suemax | ||||
| Aframax | ||||
| MR |
Dry Bulk
Indicative TC (1 year)
| Type | Tons | + /- | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capesize | ||||
| Panamax | ||||
| Supramax | ||||
| Handysize |
Indicative Values
| Type | Resale | 5y | 10y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capesize | ||||
| Panamax | ||||
| Supramax | ||||
| Handysize |
