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It was a mixed week for the biggest segment, VLCC; the route between the Gulf of Mexico and China tightened while the rates across the Atlantic calmed down due to a lot of tonnage available on the UK coast line. For the Suezmax there was a 15% decrease in the average income, but conditions are still really favourable for ship owners who are making more than $60,000 per day. Aframax took an expected hit of 10% on average income in the past week, as owners accepted reduced rates to hedge against the Greek Easter. The tanker market is on very firm footing going forward, it is hard to find analysts who are negative for the next 2 years. In 2024, a negative fleet growth is expected for the first time since 2002!
Aframax ECO, 12 months TC
Aframax, Average spot
Suezmax ECO, 12 months TC
Suezmax, Average spot
Source: Clarksons Research
Another slow week with a lack of optimism. Features followed the trend and had a weak week, generally dragged down by the cyclone in Australia and long tonnage lists. Charters are holding a bit back on the fresh cargoes hoping for an even weaker market. We mainly saw the biggest drop in the East, and not too many fixtures were reported as we had holidays in several places.
Capesize, 12 months TC
Kamsarmax, 12 months TC
Source: Clarksons Research
Looking back at how this segment has developed over the last year, it was marked by a sharp tightening on both the supply and demand side. Factors that tightened the supply of ships included historically low newbuilding rates (averaging 4 ships/year since 2016) and port congestion (e.g. shortage of truck drivers, dockworkers, microchips). On the other hand, demand increased for electric vehicles, mainly from China who exported +3M vehicles for the year (up 54% year-on-year). The outlook for the segment in 2023 is still reported as strong. Both analysts and tonnage owners believe rates will remain high and that ship values will follow suit.
5000 CEU – 12 months TC
6500 CEU – 12 months TC
Source: Clarksons Research
| Type | Tons | Week 10 | Week 9 | + /- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC | 300t. | $ 55000 | $ 53000 | 3.5 % |
| Suemax | 180t. | $ 51000 | $ 51000 | 0 % |
| Aframax | 120t. | $ 56000 | $ 56000 | -2 % |
| MR | 80t. | $ 33500 | $ 34000 | -1.5 % |
| Type | Resale | 5y | 10y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC | 125 | 100 | 76 | 60 |
| Suemax | 85 | 68 | 53 | 31 |
| Aframax | 75 | 62.50 | 50 | 38.50 |
| MR | 47.50 | 41.50 | 32 | 21 |
| Type | Tons | Week 10 | Week 9 | + /- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capesize | 180t. | $ 21500 | $ 19500 | 10 % |
| Panamax | 76t. | $ 16300 | $ 16000 | 1 % |
| Supramax | 58t. | $ 16000 | $ 16000 | 0 % |
| Handysize | 30t. | $ 15500 | $ 15500 | 0 % |
| Type | Resale | 5y | 10y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capesize | 64 | 53.5 | 32.5 | 20.75 |
| Panamax | 39 | 32.5 | 24 | 15.75 |
| Supramax | 38 | 31.5 | 21 | 15.5 |
| Handysize | 31 | 26 | 18.50 | 12.25 |
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