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Tanker ton-miles reach an all time high.
Tanker market analysts have remained focused on growing ton-miles in the industry. Leading shipping news outlet TradeWinds, highlighted the growth in ton-miles resulting from the Red Sea crisis’, writing the “Red Sea disruption has created the best-ever market for tankers in terms of ton-mile demand analysts have calculated”. The claim is backed by data from ship broker Fearnleys and energy market analytics firm Vortexa, who have estimated tanker ton-miles are at an all time.
“Red Sea disruption has created the best-ever market for tankers – TradeWinds”
Ship broker Gibsons focused on Namibia as a possible driver of future market strength, as the South West African country, located between Angola and South Africa, may be a source of oil supply growth in years to come. Oil majors Shell and Total have ramped up exploration activities since finding oil in the nation in early 2022, and Gibsons highlight that production will likely by export-oriented requiring tankers to service any new supply.
Aframax ECO, 12 months TC
Aframax, Average spot
Suezmax ECO, 12 months TC
Suezmax, Average spot
Source: Clarksons Research
Capesize rates fall back down to earth.
Capesize rates have now fallen back down to earth, with rates now below the average level for 2024, but still above the average rates of 2022 and 2023 according to Clarksons Research. This move lower in capesize rates, is a continued unwind of recent surge in rates which occurred in Early March. Slower levels of activity due to lower holiday period demand have been somewhat to blame.
“Holidays in the West and the East led to slower demand and softer rates”
Panamax rates saw a more subdued move lower. There was some uptick in demand as the usual holiday lull passed, but supply built faster than demand, leading to lower rates. Handy markets were also affected by holidays in both the West, Atlantic, and the East, Pacific, resulting softer rates for the segment. Some areas of stronger demand emerged in both basins, but plentiful supply ultimately saw rates fall slightly.
Capesize, 12 months TC
Kamsarmax, 12 months TC
Source: Clarksons Research
Baltimore supply chain disruptions expected to increase PCTC revenues from other terminals.
Key US vehicle export centre, Baltimore, has seen severe disruptions following the dramatic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. Leading PCTC owner Wallenius Wilhelmsen recently shared that they have been “diverting originally Baltimore-bound cargo to other US ports on a case-by-case basis”. This confirms initial speculation of supply chain disruptions emerging from the bridge collapse, and as a result, Wallenius Wilhelmsen now expect greater revenues from other (non-Baltimore) terminals. Wallenius Wilhelmsen were forced to comment as news broke that one of their PCTC vessels is trapped in the Port of Baltimore, with the company expecting that the earnings loss from the trapped vessel is “likely balanced out by increased traffic/revenue generated by other terminals”. Overall the market dislocations caused by the bridge collapse can broadly lead to higher PCTC rates in the short-term.
5000 CEU – 12 months TC
6500 CEU – 12 months TC
Source: Clarksons Research
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