MARKET NEWS

EMF Weekly 19

2 weeks ago

TankerS

Tanker rates led higher by strong supply from the Americas.

Tanker rates rose last week led by the VLCC sector, where rates gained 13% week-on-week pushing rates back above USD 50,000 per day, while fleet-weighted tanker earnings across all vessel sectors rose 7%. The gains were driven by strong activity in the Atlantic as the structural shift towards increasing crude supply from the Americas (USA, Brazil, Guyana) continues to boost the outlook for tankers.

TradeWinds reported that supply growth from the Americas can offset OPEC+ maintaining their production cuts in 2024 to date. The growing industry ton-miles due to shifts towards the Americas can further increase demand for tankers.

“Crude supply growth from the Americas continues to boost ton-miles”

Geopolitics and supply dislocations also support ongoing strength with no resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict in sight following Israel’s recent rejection of a ceasefire agreement. Israel’s latest assault on Rafah will continue to incentivize Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Avoidance of the Red Sea and Suez Canal adds significant ton-miles to the market and will likely continue for the foreseeable future.

$ 0 /day

Aframax ECO, 12 months TC

$ 0 /day

Aframax, Average spot

$ 0 /day

Suezmax ECO, 12 months TC

$ 0 /day

Suezmax, Average spot

Source: Clarksons Research

Dry Bulk

Capesize rates move above $30,000 for the first time since March.

Dry Bulk rates rose across all vessel segments last week, with strong activity levels, particularly in the Atlantic driving demand. Capesize rates rose 12% week-on-week moving back above USD 30,000 per day to reach their highest level since late March 2024. Strong mining activity was the primary driver with the strongest gains coming from the North Atlantic.

“Positive momentum building in dry bulk markets”

Panamax rates rose again last-week as demand was supported by strong mineral and grain cargoes from the US. In the Pacific, demand was also strong, particularly around Indonesia and India. Handysize markets were softer as holidays negatively impacted activity levels.

$ 0 /day

Capesize, 12 months TC

$ 0 /day

Kamsarmax, 12 months TC

Source: Clarksons Research

car carrier

PCTC owner Wallenius Wilhelmsen expects a stronger 2024 than its record 2023.

Leading Norwegian PCTC owner Wallenius Wilhelmsen (WW) reported strong Q1 2024 results last week, with the CEO expecting 2024 to likely be a stronger year than 2023, which was the best result in the company’s history. WW revenues remained at record levels year-on-year, driven by stronger rates and high activity levels, and expects continued strong rates and activity during 2024.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen CEO Lasse Kristoffersen also shared that current limited vessel supply creates a strong backdrop for contract renewals coming due in 2024. The company reiterated that it remains fully sold out, as is the case for most of the industry. China remains the key driver of demand growth with seaborne exports from China projected to rise an additional 26.3% year-on-year in 2024, as per the graph below. In addition, WW expects growth in Chinese exports to offset the growth in the global fleet through to at least 2025.

$ 0 /day

5000 CEU – 12 months TC

$ 0 /day

6500 CEU – 12 months  TC

Source: Clarksons Research

Tankers

Indicative TC (1 year)
Type Tons + /-
VLCC
Suemax
Aframax
MR
Indicative Values
Type Resale 5y 10y
VLCC
Suemax
Aframax
MR

Dry Bulk

Indicative TC (1 year)
Type Tons + /-
Capesize
Panamax
Supramax
Handysize
Indicative Values
Type Resale 5y 10y
Capesize
Panamax
Supramax
Handysize

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