The tanker market continues to strengthen significantly. Last week, spot rates in Aframax rose another 15%, VLCC increased 260% and Suezmax was up 133%. We expect the Aframax segment to strengthen significantly in the future as we will see that charterers will have Aframax ships on the routes normally operated by VLCC and Suezmax. As mentioned last week, this fierce rate hike is due to sanctions against the Chinese shipping companies, as well as the missile attack on an Iranian tanker in the Strait of Hormuz last Friday, generating solid risk premiums. Furthermore, we are now experiencing the largest increase in refinery activity in 40 years on the basis of the IMO2020 regulations, which are approaching with a storm. Due to the increased tension in the Middle East, the United States has stepped up the process of getting pipelines completed from the Permian basin and out to the coast to increase export capacity. It is estimated that an increase of 1 mb / d in oil exports will require 50-55 new tankers. It is expected that the US will now increase oil exports by 25% at current levels of about 3 mb / d, which will correspond to 750,000 b / d which in turn will increase demand for tankers of around 40 ships! In other words, we are having a terribly exciting time.
Several shipowners who have had scheduled time at the yards to install scrubbers have chosen not to take advantage of this and rather sail in the market, which is understandable. This could mean that the period of ships out of the scrubber installation market will extend further and keep supply low far into 2020.
Finally, we now see that ship values are moving north. With this market, it’s only a matter of time before they really take off. The ships today are severely under priced. A 10-year-old Aframax, with a 12-month TC of $ 27,500, should be priced at around $ 29-33 million. Today it stands at $ 24.5 million! That said, expect to see higher vessel values in the time to come.
Aframax – 12 month TC : $ 27,500 per day
Aframax – Average spot market rate: $ 58,741 per day
In dry bulk we have now seen a good market since this summer and it remains relatively strong. Increased activity out of Brazil is tightening the Capesize market. The Atlantic also shows strong earnings while the East remains relatively stable and strong. The tightening in the Atlantic also provides increased rates for the Handymax vessels and dry cargo generally looks very good as of to day.
Capesize 12 month TC : $ 21,125
Panamax 12 month TC : $ 13,875
There were no transactions of interests through last week. On a general basis, we see that shipowners are becoming less and less interested in selling ships and prices must rise significantly before shipowners become willing to give green light to sell.
5 Kamsarmaxer changed hands last week. A 2009 building changed hands for $15m, while a 2013 went for $16m. The remaining three vessels (2015, 2015 and 2016) was sold for a total price of $75m in a en bloc deal. Vessel values are on the rise.