Markedsnyheder

EMF Weekly 20

5 dage siden

TankerS

Tanker markets hold steady at a strong level as market fundamentals remain positive.

A recent financial times article focused on the booming tanker market as spot rates are historically high, driven by growing ton-miles, constrained vessel supply conditions, and growing global crude supply.

The sustained market conditions and vessel supply tightness have driven second-hand tanker prices 50% higher since Q4 2020. The supply tightness is amplified by an aging global fleet averaging 13 years old, which could rise to 15 years by 2026 assuming no elevated scrapping – the oldest since at least the mid-1990s. Lead times for newbuilds have stretched to 3+ years, well above the typical 2 years. Tonnage is being further tied up by environmental regulations requiring slower speeds and locking up supply through longer journey times.

“The ageing tanker fleet to apply supply pressure on tankers in years to come”

The looming vessel supply shortage is not being reflected in the orderbook which remains historically low, as strong demand for vessels from other segments keeps yard capacity constrained. Major tanker stocks like Frontline and DHT are up over 30% year-to-date as earnings conditions remain strong and tanker owners are making the highest profits since the late 2000s.

Additionally, Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea keep diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope adding significant ton-miles to the industry. Last week the Houthis launched a fresh attack on a Panama-flagged tanker en-route to China, temporarily disabling the vessel; a sign there is no end to the disruptions in sight.

$ 0 /dag

Aframax ECO, 12 months TC

$ 0 /dag

Aframax, Average spot

$ 0 /dag

Suezmax ECO, 12 months TC

$ 0 /dag

Suezmax, Average spot

Source: Clarksons Research

Bulk

Bulk markets lose momentum but with rates at a strong level.

The Capesize market took a step back last week as plentiful vessel supply, particularly in the South Atlantic region, drove rates lower. The North Atlantic region also lost ground; however, overall Capesize earnings remained fairly positive with the year-to-date rates up around 120% year-on-year, according to Clarksons.

“Dry bulk markets took a step back as vessel supply was high amid some faltering in demand”

For Panamax bulkers, the Atlantic started the week strong with healthy demand from new mineral cargoes from the US East Coast. However, greater vessel supply further south dragged down rates in the basin overall. Panamax markets were more positive in the Pacific.

Handy rates struggled as the US Gulf saw a lack of fresh demand, while the East Coast of South America was oversupplied with vessels. Over in the Pacific, activity levels improved but with high vessel supply levels.

$ 0 /dag

Capesize, 12 måneders TC

$ 0 /dag

Kamsarmax, 12 måneders TC

Source: Clarksons Research

PCTC (Bilfragtskibe)

Surging vehicle exports to offset vessel supply growth – Wallenius Wilhelmsen.

The global PCTC shipping market is experiencing an exceptional period of tightness, resembling the capacity crunch seen in the container shipping sector during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, unlike containers, analysts expect strong demand for PCTC vessels to continue for several years ahead, particularly driven by surging vehicle exports from Asia.

Vehicle exports hit records in 2023, with the explosive growth projected to continue, particularly from China, and the heavy truck/machinery segment is also recovering.

“China’s goal to be the world’s leading auto producer drives long-term PCTC demand”

Wallenius Wilhelmsen expects the market to absorb pending PCTC supply growth as growing demand can offset supply growth and maintain the stretched supply and demand conditions, with signs that the shortage could extend through 2027 per major operator Gram Car Carriers.

Overall, the PCTC outlook remains exceptionally robust. Owners with modern, efficient tonnage are positioned for continued windfall profits amid multi-year highs for charter rates driven by the massive supply deficit.

$ 0 /dag

5000 CEU – 12 måneders TC

$ 0 /dag

6500 CEU – 12 måneders  TC

Source: Clarksons Research

Tankmarkedet

Indicative TC (1 år)
Type Ton + /-
VLCC
Suemax
Aframax
MR
Indicative Values
Type Resalg 5 år 10 år
VLCC
Suemax
Aframax
MR

Bulk

Indicative TC (1 år)
Type Ton + /-
Capesize
Panamax
Supramax
Handysize
Indicative Values
Type Resalg 5 år 10 år
Capesize
Panamax
Supramax
Handysize

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