Markedsnyheder
EMF Weekly 17
5 dage siden
TankerS
Big VLCC rate rises in 2025 – Clarksons Securities.
Clarksons Securities, the leading global ship broker, issued a bullish forecast for tankers, particularly VLCCs, for 2024 and 2025, driven by unrest in the Middle East and rising Atlantic crude production. Clarksons expects VLCCs to benefit from rising crude volumes from the Atlantic (US, Brazil, Guyana). This shift towards increasing Atlantic barrels is increasing industry ton-miles, and while VLCCs can be the primary beneficiaries, according to Clarksons, a trickle-down effect throughout the tanker market can support rates across the board.
“Increasing crude volumes from the Atlantic to support bullish tanker outlook”
Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and vessel attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea continue to drive avoidance of the Suez Canal. Last week saw a fresh attack by the Houthis on a Panama-flagged Tanker, MV Andromeda, en route from Russia to India. The attack is a re-escalation following a few weeks of relative calm. As a result, vessels are likely to keep avoiding the Red Sea long into 2024.
Aframax ECO, 12 months TC
Aframax, Average spot
Suezmax ECO, 12 months TC
Suezmax, Average spot
Source: Clarksons Research
Bulk
Bulk markets in flux as capesize rates fall.
Capesize rates fell last week as volatility in capesize rates remains very high. The move lower came on weaker activity levels, particularly in the Atlantic, as iron ore shipments from Brazil were lower and general sentiment from South Brazil and the North Atlantic declined. However, sentiment did improve towards the end of the week, so momentum may change again.
“Bulk rates fall as volatility remains high”
Panamax rates also softened, led lower by weaker activity levels from Australia and Indonesia. Rates did gain towards the end of the week, but with the overall move ending in the red. Handy rates gained week-on-week, supported by healthy demand for Far East steel, and Indonesian coal.
Capesize, 12 måneders TC
Kamsarmax, 12 måneders TC
Source: Clarksons Research
PCTC (Bilfragtskibe)
MSC offers to acquire Gram Car Carriers at a 28% share price premium.
Gram Car Carriers (GCC), a Norwegian-listed pure PCTC owner, received an acquisition offer from European container giant MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company SA last week on 23rd April 2024 in a potential deal valued at NOK 7.6bn (USD 700m). The offer to acquire 100% of the share capital was priced at NOK 263.69 per share, around a 28% premium to Gram Car Carriers’ share price at the time. MSC’s offer signals the long-term earnings potential of the PCTC segment, and a Gram Car Carriers acquisition can be its mechanism for gaining exposure.
Gram Car Carriers also reported its Q1 2024 earnings last week. It continues to report strong results as PCTC rates remain at record highs, supported by strong vehicle exports from East Asia, ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea, and an undersupply of vessels. In the Q1 2024 earnings presentation, GCC showed that vehicle exports from East Asia (China, Japan, and Korea) are currently 49% above 2019, pre-COVID levels – see diagram below. This demonstrates the significant shift that has driven the exceptional strength in the PCTC market in recent years. Clarksons Research also reports that Chinese vehicle exports have continued growing in 2024, with YTD volumes up 21% year-on-year.
5000 CEU – 12 måneders TC
6500 CEU – 12 måneders TC
Source: Clarksons Research
Tankmarkedet
Indicative TC (1 år)
| Type | Ton | + /- | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC | ||||
| Suemax | ||||
| Aframax | ||||
| MR |
Indicative Values
| Type | Resalg | 5 år | 10 år | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC | ||||
| Suemax | ||||
| Aframax | ||||
| MR |
Bulk
Indicative TC (1 år)
| Type | Ton | + /- | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capesize | ||||
| Panamax | ||||
| Supramax | ||||
| Handysize |
Indicative Values
| Type | Resalg | 5 år | 10 år | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capesize | ||||
| Panamax | ||||
| Supramax | ||||
| Handysize |
